Will True Democracy Take Root in the Arab Spring Countries?

Image: Illustration: Vidyanand Kamat; Images: shutterstock

The short answer to this is, at this moment we do not know. Initial results seem very disturbing because of the rise of Islamic groups in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. We are not very sure about their agenda yet. Sadly, no one is talking about building a new system to replace the ones that collapsed. Most of the focus is still on trivial things like how to dress, what religious rules to follow. Not on education, employment or increasing living standards. We have no clue about their intentions in this direction.

There seems to me no vision for the future and this really worries me. In Egypt, the first of three rounds of elections has just concluded. The entire process leading up to the presidential elections will take about six months more. Most educated people are hoping that whoever comes to power will be patriotic enough to care for Egypt and not focus on trivialities. A good president would mean a lot for the economy. [Hosni] Mubarak and his cronies made massive amounts of money, but left out everyone else.

But one thing is clear. The constitutional changes mean that no president can stay on for 30 years like Mubarak did. One term is for five years and no one can be re-elected for more than two terms. If parliament does not deliver, they will never be chosen again. The biggest advantage of the Arab awakening is that people are free of their fears. If they do not like the rulers in the future, they will change them. Though we do not know how to yet, in the next few years, we will learn to use true democratic freedom.

Women took active part in the Arab uprising, but are no longer in the picture. The truth is that we are a chauvinistic society. The image of a leader in the Arab world is that of a man. The biggest fear now is the Islamist groups may curb women’s rights even more.

In the elections too, very few women were in the running. We may not have more than two women in parliament. There is only one woman in the cabinet now and she has been around for the past 10-15 years. At least in the last government, women were well represented in parliament because of a quota — 64 women were elected.

To understand the future, it is necessary to look at what caused the Arab Spring. Along with being a political movement to unseat autocratic regimes, there were strong economic reasons. ‘Bread, Freedom and Social Justice’, was the slogan in the crowds. Unemployment was one of the biggest causes. In each of the Arab Spring countries, the labour force grew faster than the employment opportunities. In the past, surplus labour from non-oil producing nations like Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Jordan, went to work in oil producing countries in the Gulf. But this migration stopped in the 1990s when the oil producers began to prefer cheaper labour from Asia. This forced the non-oil producing countries to begin economic reforms.

However, they could not do enough and unemployment rates were soon among the highest in the world. This led to poor human development and poverty. These turned out to be the second most important cause for the Arab spring of 2011. Except in Lebanon, the human development indices are very poor. There is huge inequality in the distribution of free services provided by the government. The middle and upper classes grabbed most of the facilities and the poor were getting less and less.

For democracy to take root, the new regimes will have to correct this. The government expenditure will have to be targeted at the poorest 10 percent of society rather than the upper classes. Corruption and wealth had led to a concentration of wealth among the rulers in Cairo, Tunis or Damascus. The old leaders not only amassed massive wealth, but were also putting in place their sons as successors. Although we were republics, in reality it was like a monarchy. We cannot be deceived by high economic growth rates. A limited group cannot reap the fruits of this growth.

I am not sure about their agenda yet, but the Muslim Brotherhood and other conservative groups that are coming to power may introduce changes that affect our economy. In Egypt, tourism is a very important economic driver. Even though we are Muslims, we do not want to become like Saudi Arabia.

 Unfortunately, money from the Gulf is coming in and is directed to the poorest sections of our society. Illiteracy is still high at 27 percent. Moreover, about 22 percent is below the poverty line. Their minds can be controlled easily as religion is the only thing left for them to turn to. This is not acceptable for many middle class families.

Will the Arab spring spread? The answer is yes, but not in all Arab countries. It will take some time to assess the outcome or the results of the uprisings. But I guarantee you that if the Muslim Brotherhood starts repression, the people across these countries will start to revolt — and I will be the first among them.

Alia Abdel Monem El Mahdi is dean of the faculty of economics and political science and professor of economics, Cairo University, Egypt.

(As told to Cuckoo Paul)