India's moment: Time to unshackle and drive domestic demand
The global view that the next decade belongs to India must be realised, and here's how it can be done
The October 2023 India Development Update given by the World Bank shows that despite global challenges, India grew at 7.2 percent, twice the average growth rate of emerging economies.
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Team India displayed a phenomenal performance in the 2023 World Cup. Batters aced while bowlers menaced. Superlative performances prompted Ravi Shastri to comment, "India will have to wait for another three World Cups if they don't win it this time… The way they are playing, this is probably their best chance." Indian economy is in a similar sweet spot. The global view that the next decade belongs to India must be realised. President Boeing India, Salil Gupte, commented in a panel discussion, "…this is a unique moment …people have been telling me – Someday! Someday, India will be one of the top markets for aviation, and someday, India will have the capability for top-quality manufacturing and be part of the global supply chain. It is crystal clear that in this moment … someday has arrived, someday has arrived …this is India's moment…".
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Similar enthusiasm is echoed by heads of many manufacturing majors like ABB, Mercedes Benz and Foxconn. This panel discussion was held almost a year back, and India's admirers list keeps growing. A few days back, the MD of Intel India, Santhosh Vishwanathan, expressed buoyant sentiments regarding digital transformation and 'Make in India' initiatives. Dr Sanjeev Sanyal, Principal Economic Advisor to the Government of India, says, "Growth is not inevitable. Growth is earned." The October 2023 India Development Update given by the World Bank shows that despite global challenges, India grew at 7.2 percent, twice the average growth rate of emerging economies. The growth needs to be sustained despite the growing challenges.
Mixed Signals of Global Demand
High inflation in the US has eroded the purchasing power of the US Dollar by 17 percent[1]. Credit card debt has soared to $1 trillion for the first time. The credit card debt and the interest rate burden on that debt are at record high. Fortunately, employment figures are high as the factories kept chugging, producing weapons, ammunition, and other aid materials for Ukraine and Israel. That's probably why consumers' income rose, and despite the high inflation, the US economy in its Q3 of 2023 recorded a 4.9 percent real GDP growth rate annually. This is astounding.The US was expected to fall into recession. In its April 2023 report, Bloomberg said there was a 65 percent probability for the US to get into a recession. The probability for the UK has been stated as 75 percent. For other large economies like Germany, Italy, Canada, France, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia, it is said to be in the range of 40-70 percent. In June, it was reported that Eurozone had slipped into a mild recession as the economy contracted by 0.1 percent in the previous two quarters[2]. The recession seems to be hardening as the third quarter also saw a decline of 0.1 percent[3]. It is further expected to slip as HCOB's PMI fell to 46.5 in October from September's 47.2, the lowest since Nov 2020.
The recession in the EU implies lowered demand for Indian exports of goods and services. Growing tension in the Middle East adds to India's woes regarding meeting its export targets. On the one hand, weak global demand reduces orders for our factories, but on the other, it benefits India through falling commodity prices and the availability of cheaper credit. Crude oil prices have started falling on cues of weak global demand. The Gaza crisis does indicate supply disruption, but OPEC may not wish to risk that. "Investors are more focused on slow demand in the United States and China while worries over the potential supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat receded." [4]
Recall that Russian oil also found its way to the market despite the war and ban. Foreign investors have begun pulling huge funds from exchange-traded funds tracking Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Israel. The war is harming the business-friendly narrative built by these countries. As the Middle East looks to build infrastructure to develop non-petroleum sources of revenue, it may not risk oil supply disruption from this region. Moreover, investors pulling money out of the Middle East, China and the EU implies increased availability of funds for Indian companies.
