The great melting and eventual sinking: Have we reached the point of no return?

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Is India at peril too?

The answer is an unequivocal yes. According to the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) 'State of the Global Climate in 2021' report, not only is the sea level rising along the Indian coast, it is rising at a much higher rate than the average global rise. The rate of rise is also not uniform in the Indian Ocean region, with the rise being fastest in the southwestern part, exceeding the global average by 2.5 mm/year. In other parts, including the coastlines, the rise is 0 to 2.5 mm/year faster than the worldwide average.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its 'Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis' report, shared some alarming predictions, indicating that "by 2040, Mumbai's sea level will rise by 0.12m compared to 0.4m in 2020" and "Chennai will see a 0.10m rise compared to 0.3m in 2020". It is feared that some coastal cities, including Mumbai, Chennai, Kochi, and Visakhapatnam, could be nearly three feet underwater by the century's end. Another alarming impact of rising sea levels is the loss of 110 square kilometres of ecologically important mangroves in Sundarbans over the past two decades.

The situation is even more threatening up North. The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has led to the formation of glacial lakes, such as Lake Imja, that can burst at any time due to accelerated melting, releasing a destructive 'Glacial Lake Outburst Flood' (GLOF).

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Is the situation redeemable?

The reasons behind melting glaciers are well-documented and discussed. Emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG) such as carbon dioxide since the Industrial Revolution of 1880 has caused global warming, with temperatures increasing by 2°F in total, reaching a point where 2022 was the sixth-warmest year in recorded history. The high land and sea temperatures have caused the 'great melting,' seen as a precursor of dire 'sinking' predictions.

The world has responded exigently, coming up with The Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, adopted at COP21 in Paris in 2015. The objective was to limit warming preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the pre-industrial levels. Despite these efforts, the temperatures continue to rise, with the World Economic Forum noting climate action failure as the most significant global risk. It is indeed a fact that despite all the actions initiated so far, including the firm commitment of nations to achieve carbon neutrality, emissions are growing, and the world seems to be heading toward cataclysmic ecological disasters by 2050. It is becoming increasingly apparent that net zero may not be achieved any time soon. Even if carbon neutrality targets are achieved, these might need to be timelier and more sufficient to stop the glaciers from melting and cities from sinking.

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Time to think out of the box and act fast

There is no arguing that the best way to stop, or at least slow down, the 'great melting' is to reduce emissions over the coming decades to reach zero by 2050. However, with this being a challenging and slow process, scientists and researchers have come up with many out-of-the-box solutions, almost too bizarre to contemplate or too difficult to scale up, but a handful are reasonably practical and useful.

For instance, suggesting that the erosion of glaciers needs to be slowed down, Nature, a well-regarded scientific journal, suggested building a 100-meter-long dam in front of the Jakobshavn glacier (Greenland), one of the worst affected glaciers to restrict its erosion.

Another initiative that has made headlines is 'refreeze the ice' introduced by a UK startup. The plan is to use a solar-powered pump to bring water from under the Arctic Ice sheet to create a lake. Exposed to the cold air, the water in the lake would refreeze, replenishing the ice sheet. It sounds simple theoretically, but there are challenges in implementing, both operational and financial.

Yet another ambitious plan was unveiled by Impact Research, Germany, to stop the ice sheets from collapsing. The project entails spraying a large amount of artificially-created snow over west Antarctica to save coastal cities worldwide from sea level rise. Continuing in a similar vein, a team of Indonesian designers proposed using submarines as giant ice makers in the ocean. A US-based non-profit organisation Ice911 has also come up with a solution, a product that is essentially a sand-like material made from silicate glass. Since this substance is highly reflective, it could effectively reflect sunlight off the surface. Tests have proven that it results in thicker ice sheets. The implementation of these solutions continues to be debated.

Putting their most innovative minds to work, scientists have devised a unique idea: seeding the atmosphere with chemicals to block sunlight, but the idea was criticised for the cost and risks involved. Another exciting development has been the proposal of geoengineering projects ranging from using robots to build underwater walls to protect the glaciers to pumping cold water through underground tunnels to thicken the ice and prevent it from sliding into the ocean. Michael Wolovick, a glaciologist at Princeton University, suggested that these projects could be viable: "These geoengineering projects could delay much of the polar glaciers from melting into the sea for centuries."

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An interesting, more financially viable solution (estimated annual cost of $11 billion) is spraying particles through aeroplanes to undertake stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) effective in dimming sunlight, thereby having a cooling effect.  

With these solutions still being contemplated and, in some cases, piloted, coastal cities around the world, such as Miami Beach, are looking for local-level solutions such as the installation of extensive pump systems to stem the rising tides and raising roads further above sea level to counter against the rising sea level. However, this comes at a cost that most nations, including developed ones, may need help to undertake along their coastline. What is most worrisome is that beyond a point, no barrier will be sufficient to stop the surging waters. We could well have reached the point of no return.

Shalini Talwar, Associate Professor, Finance and Economics, SPJIMR, Mumbai & Research Lead, SPJIMR’s Centre for Innovation in Sustainable Development (CISD) Aryan Sugla, PGDM (Marketing) 2022-24, SPJIMR, Mumbai.