Some of the most interesting topics covered in this week's iteration are related to 'Difficulties in realising India's solar ambitions', 'the importance of branding as a competitive moat', and 'Japan's friend renting business'.
At Ambit, we spend a lot of time reading articles that cover a wide gamut of topics, including investment analysis, psychology, science, technology, philosophy, etc. We have been sharing our favourite reads with clients under our weekly ‘Ten Interesting Things’ product. Some of the most interesting topics covered in this week’s iteration are related to ‘Difficulties in realising India’s solar ambitions’, ‘the importance of branding as a competitive moat’, and ‘Japan’s friend renting business’.
Here are the ten most interesting pieces that we read this week, ended November 17, 2017.
1) Reality dawn on India's solar ambitions [Source: Financial Times]
The winning bid for the 500-megawatt Bhadla solar park in Rajasthan in May’17 was one of the lowest prices for solar power ever seen anywhere in the world. The companies — Acme Solar, an Indian developer, and SBG Cleantech, a joint venture whose shareholders include SoftBank of Japan — said they would build the project for a guaranteed price of just Rs2.44 ($0.04) for every unit of electricity they eventually sold. For many in the Indian energy industry, the Bhadla auction confirmed that the country is undergoing a generational shift from coal-fuelled power to solar and wind. Given that India is already the world’s third-biggest carbon emitter and plans to electrify even its most remote villages within two years, a rapid expansion in the country’s renewables sector would prove a huge boost for attempts to keep global temperature rises below 2 degree Celsius — the target set by the 2015 Paris climate accords.
India has set an aggressive target of building 175 gigawatts of new renewable power by 2022, of which 100 gigawatts would come from solar. At first, the country struggled to build new capacity as quickly as the targets required, but over the past two years, a string of record-low bids for new solar power projects have fuelled optimism that it could soon catch up. Acme Solar’s bid of Rs2.44 for Bhadla in May, meant that prices had dropped 50% in two years and over a quarter in just three months. It also meant that solar was now substantially cheaper than coal- averaging at Rs3.20 per unit. The successful bid raised some eyebrows in the industry. However, the companies behind the bid defend the offer. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay, the founder and chairman of Acme suggests there are good reasons the price of solar power in India is so low. In addition to its strong and reliable sunlight, the price of Chinese-made solar panels has tumbled in the past few years as a manufacturing boom has created over-supply. Moreover, India’s notoriously high cost of capital has been reduced by strong government involvement in the solar power sector.
At parks like Bhadla, government acquisition of land combined with guaranteed grid connections and payment guarantees (should state utilities default) has reduced the developers’ projected financing costs to around 9% - not far above the central bank’s benchmark rate of 6%. However, the problem Mr. Upadhyay faces is that there are several factors that could yet push costs up considerably. Firstly, while the amount of annual sunlight received at Bhadla will be fairly predictable over the contract’s 25-year period, less reliable is how polluted the site becomes. A study last month showed that India’s thick blanket of air pollution is sapping solar power generation by a quarter. Secondly, the cost of solar panels has stopped falling in the past six months, and begun to rise instead, from $0.30 per watt of power to around $0.35, mainly because both the US and India are now considering anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made panels. Such a move would push the overall costs of projects like Bhadla up by 20% or $32m more. Third, the Government’s new goods and services tax, has also pushed up costs for solar developers. Finally, there is a serious risk the utilities buying power will simply not pay.
The Central Government has sought to allay these fears by providing several layers of guarantees to solar developers, with itself as the final backstop. But with some states already trying to renegotiate deals with solar power developers to take advantage of falling prices in the sector, some worry that banks could start to push up the financing costs. Already, concerns over the runaway Indian solar power industry have started to slow its growth. The pace of new tender announcements has slowed 68% in the past year and since May, no company has come close to bidding Rs2.44 for a new project. There are also signs that banks are getting nervous about whether they will be repaid. One foreign banker says they are not willing to finance Indian solar projects until companies can prove they are able to build at the costs being quoted. With an estimated $10bn of bank finance already committed to the industry, a series of defaults from developers would prove serious for India’s already distressed lenders.